Sleeper Teams Part 1

Alright, in this series I'm going to expand on my very first post for this blog. In said post, I explained why I didn't think the Tigers (the sexy pick for champs in 07') wouldn't even make it back to the World Series. Hey, turns out I was right. Lets see if I really have some sort of amazing foresight or used up what little luck I had (most definitely the latter). That said, I'll start off with dissecting why the early favorites WON'T make it and which teams I think WILL be in the World Series this year:

In the NL, it's really a wide open race, and while the Mets may be the early favorite to come out on top because of the Santana steal, I'm not sold on the rest of their starting rotation. John Maine should be solid, and maybe Oliver Perez can continue to salvage his young career. But with El Duque and Pedro you have two huge health risks followed by little depth if they get injured. I even find their offense questionable, with the only sure things being Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran (when he isn't being a head case). Delgado looked done last year, Luis Castillo often has a on-base percentage higher than his slugging (though obp is more valuable than slugging, having 24 career homers in 5479 career at bats is putrid), and Moises Alou can't seem to pick up a backpack without injuring himself. In the NL, this might be able to carry you if you have the pitching to back it up. Other than Billy, I'm not a fan of their bullpen.

No, I'm gonna go ahead and select the team I predicted was on the rise last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Except this year, instead of picking them to be a contender in the NL, I'm picking them to make the WS. Why? Pitching, my friends. These guys have it in spades. They probably have a few more believers now that they added Dan Haren in a trade with the A's to anchor the top of the rotation with Brandon Webb. They have a 1-2 punch to match a Padres team that did pretty much nothing to improve themselves. With the reliable Doug Davis, Micah Owings (who makes up for his pitching inefficiencies with his surprising offensive prowess), and a possibly healthy Randy Johnson, this team has a rotation good enough for the top of the NL. NO ONE has their pitching depth, but the Padres and Dodgers (their division rivals) can come close. They play in such a tough division that the NL champion Rockies aren't even my 3rd favorite team in their standings. The funny thing is two seasons ago this division was a joke. The D-Backs may've lost their closer, but they're overrated anyway. You can throw any above-average pitcher into a 9th innings with a lead and no one on base and they'll close enough games out for your team to be in fine shape. No, the problem is their offense not getting on base enough. Chris Young hit a bunch of dingers last year. Great. How about some doubles, guy? He had 3 more homers than doubles last year and a horrible OBP. It's not so much he doesn't walk enough is that it doesn't make up for his lack of hitting. When you're batting .237 for the year you better walk more than 43 times. Stop laughing, Stephen Drew; you're no better. They have some light in the dark in that Justin Upton will be an absolute monster once he puts everything together at the plate. However, he's still very young and may not be ready to break out this year. He has the tools and the sky is the limit. Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson also make up two very solid parts of the offense that contributed good OBPs last year. This is still a young offense that SHOULD improve this year and get on base more often. There's a reason their run differential was weak last year: if you can't get on base, YOU CAN'T SCORE! It's that simple. Reduce your number of outs any way you can: hit the ball, walk, get beaned in the head (maybe not the last thing), whatever you can do to get on base. If they learn how to do this better than they did last year, the D-Backs are a lock in the wide open NL.

Next time I'll delve into who I think in the AL will make it to the World Series. Here's a hint: It's not a team from the AL East.

EDIT: Steve Phillips just said on ESPN the Mets were the team to beat, thus proving my point that they're not as good as people think. How does he still have a job?