Sleeper Pick Part 2

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....Whahuhfuck? Oh, sorry for just now getting to this. And no, that wasn't a pun on the subject title; it's a stab at my tardiness in getting this second parter out there. Either way I'm very lame. Let's get to the AL predictions. First up: why the Red Sox won't repeat. A somewhat bold prediction I came up with before Curt Schilling formed linguine in his right shoulder, but that's neither here nor there. While I'm sold on the fact that Josh Beckett eats his Wheaties for the playoffs, I need to see him string together consecutive successful seasons before I give him the "cock ring of unquestioned ace" that everyone else seems to be bestowing upon him. Some may say that's unfair because before 2006 he had a tendency to come down with injuries (finger blisters). Sorry, but you can't be the uber-ace of the galaxy if you're constantly on the bench. In 2006 he had an ERA+ of 95 (if you don't know, an ERA+ of 100 is considered average, meaning Mista Blista was 5% worse than league average). HOWEVER, last year he posted a robust 145 ERA+ with a 1.141 WHIP and averaged nearly 5Ks (4.85) for every walk. He credits it to figuring out better ways to pitch instead of just "throwing". I think he'll be much more in line with his 2007 stats than his 2006, but we'll see. What he'll really need is for the rest of the rotation to step up and for Dice-K to improve on his rookie season (108 ERA+ with a 1.324 WHIP and 2.5Ks for every walk). Clay Buchholz won't be giving you 200 innings this year, neither will Jon Lester, and Wakefield is just a league average pitcher. They're potentially losing for a whole season a 122 ERA+, 1.245 WHIP, and 4.4K's per walk in Schilling (not to mention between 150-200 innings). If he doesn't get surgery and comes back after the All-Star break, I expect mediocrity out of him in the same vein of 2005. The bullpen should be fine with Paps in the back end and Okajima setting up for him. The lineup features a Manny and Ortiz combo that is approaching their decline due to age and injuries, a Mike Lowell who figures to come back down to Earth, BUT should be fine nonetheless with improved play from Dustin Pedroia and the inclusion of Jacoby Ellsbury. This team is one more prolonged injury to the starting rotation away from going back to 2006 form (though I doubt it will happen).

So who will win the AL? I've fought over this decision, and while I'm not entirely sold on it I'm going with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim with Sacramento and special guest appearance from San Diego. I think their rotation is deep enough to go the distance with a cast featuring John Lackey (151 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP, 3.4K per walk), Kelvim Escobar (134/1.267/2.42), Jered Weaver (117/1.385/2.5), Jon Garland (112/1.325/1.7), and Joe Saunders (103/1.529/2). I see Weaver doing better than last year, three guys who can potentially give you 200+ innings (Lackey, Escobar, and Garland), and a back end of a rotation that gives you above league average pitching. Joe Saunders doesn't have a long enough track record in the majors to make predictions, and Garland has to do something about his K/BB ratio, but they give you a good enough chance to win. With their always solid-to-great bullpen (anchored by K-Rod), they probably have the most pitching depth. Most of these guys have good track records with their health, with the worst case scenario being the once promising Ervin Santana having to step in for injury relief (note: he's 24, young enough to turn things around). I have issues with their hack away approach at the plate, but last year they were a more patient team with Chone Figgins posting a career best OBP (.393) and Reggie Willits bursting onto the scene. Signing Torii Hunter will give you some pop, but he has a total lack of patience at the plate (never had an OBP over .337...blech!). Their offense is well-balanced and deep enough, especially in the outfield, to withstand a few injuries. So, with that said, I felt they were arguably the best team in the AL. Take your ace cock ring and shove it, Beckett.

..."cock ring of unquestioned ace"...wtf? Cocaine's a helluva drug.